This is a bit of a sour note as someone I know is currently rooting for investors in the rice trade after his other investments (that he got others involved in) failed. To discover that the warehouses in the Philippines are overstocked and likely to go out of date before usage is a major concern as I know with it being government rice I would look to offload it ASAP before it went bad. At the same time imposing import bans to force the sale of the stocks first. It wouldn’t be the first time a Philippines government has blocked imports and I can see it happening.
For general business it wouldn’t really affect it as most stock in months not weeks so allowing localised government stocks to be sold first wouldn’t really hit the market hard as long as its dripped into it. But with the huge debt looming from the NFA and the fact Arroyo empted the government budget before leaving personally I would be looking to recover as much as possible from the rice. Which would involve restrictive trading. It would also reduce imports which has a positive knock on affect for the peso although not a drastic one.
It seems so far NoyNoy has inherited an ailing ship that needs quickly rebuilding and set on a course to recovery. If your thinking of investing in rice I would advise taking a time out as the market could go in either direction depending what they decide to do about the surplus.